Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 0.095399 0.106486 0.117963 0.130702 0.144417 0.158710 0.174703
2024-11-03 0.082499 0.099595 0.118271 0.140054 0.164629 0.191364 0.222512
2024-11-10 0.067824 0.088178 0.111548 0.140042 0.173514 0.211261 0.256713
2024-11-17 0.057939 0.080563 0.107719 0.142115 0.183910 0.232447 0.292449
2024-11-24 0.049448 0.073316 0.103179 0.142345 0.191386 0.249809 0.323668
2024-12-01 0.045882 0.071724 0.105165 0.150244 0.208018 0.278192 0.368406
2024-12-08 0.042960 0.070513 0.107279 0.158068 0.224497 0.306543 0.413537
2024-12-15 0.038052 0.065911 0.104344 0.158840 0.231651 0.323146 0.444215
2024-12-22 0.032596 0.059857 0.098830 0.155619 0.233171 0.332341 0.465495
2024-12-29 0.030568 0.058683 0.099966 0.161337 0.246484 0.356735 0.506302
2025-01-05 0.028216 0.056723 0.099742 0.164999 0.256972 0.377533 0.542744
2025-01-12 0.025881 0.054519 0.098934 0.167661 0.266018 0.396478 0.576982
2025-01-19 0.023365 0.051913 0.097570 0.169785 0.274866 0.416031 0.613361
2025-01-26 0.023245 0.053472 0.102784 0.181872 0.298163 0.455628 0.677146
2025-02-02 0.020633 0.050281 0.100246 0.182197 0.304718 0.472708 0.711398
2025-02-09 0.018760 0.048211 0.099326 0.184854 0.314606 0.494454 0.752200
2025-02-16 0.016684 0.045465 0.097040 0.185196 0.321006 0.511400 0.786698
2025-02-23 0.016336 0.046134 0.100566 0.194783 0.341245 0.547929 0.848320
2025-03-02 0.015985 0.046742 0.103975 0.204240 0.361437 0.584651 0.910636
2025-03-09 0.014425 0.044549 0.102238 0.205176 0.368665 0.602991 0.947684
2025-03-16 0.012386 0.040984 0.097735 0.201293 0.368344 0.610457 0.969664
2025-03-23 0.011898 0.040924 0.099672 0.208188 0.384708 0.642072 1.025648
2025-03-30 0.011147 0.040132 0.100156 0.212596 0.397256 0.668313 1.074378